Despite some matchups that perhaps lacked a little verve on paper, Super Wild Card Weekend definitely delivered the drama.
Many of our Wild Card X-Factors did, too. Bills running back James Cook scored the first touchdown in Buffalo’s chaotic win over the gutsy Dolphins, Jaguars tight end Evan Engram shredded the Chargers defence during what was the third-largest NFL postseason comeback ever and Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale contained one of the NFL’s greatest game-breakers in Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson en route to victory in Minneapolis. And Brock Purdy’s performance speaks for itself.
Now on the cusp of another exciting few days of football as the Divisional Round rolls in, let’s dive back in and highlight some X-Factors that could come up clutch this weekend.
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs running back
McKinnon has been a fascinating player to watch all season. He wasn’t a huge part of the game plan to start the year, but as the weeks passed was worked in more and more. By the end of the season, Patrick Mahomes was throwing him no-look passes up the sideline for 50-yard touchdowns – it was a real rollercoaster.
Against the Jaguars, it seems like a no-brainer to get the lightning-quick McKinnon involved – no team gives up more targets to running backs than Jacksonville does, and since Week 12 McKinnon actually ranks second in target share (16 per cent) and averages over four catches a game in that same time frame. Jaguars defensive stalwart Josh Allen and rookie Travon Walker were magnificent against the Chargers last weekend, but they’ll have their hands full and then some versus the Chiefs.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles wide receiver
It’ll be very interesting to see where Smith lines up against the Giants on Saturday. Does he get the perimeter or the slot? One would imagine his talented teammate, A.J. Brown (he of 88 catches, 1,496 yards, and 11 touchdowns), is going to see top coverage and Giants cornerback Adoree Jackson will be ready and waiting to slow down Brown after doing a pretty good job versus Justin Jefferson last week.
If Smith gets the move inside to the slot, watch out. The Giants’ passing defence consistently allowed the Vikings’ slot option to decimate them inside last weekend, and in two previous contests between the Giants and Eagles this season, Smith himself saw season-high snap rates from – you guessed it – the slot. Smith had a terrific season – 95 catches, 1196 yards, 7 touchdowns – and there’s no real reason that shouldn’t continue versus the Giants on Saturday night.
Gabe Davis, Bills wide receiver
Following a bumpy regular season, ‘Playoff Gabe Davis’ may actually be a real thing. Their wild card matchup was a rough outing overall for the Bills, but despite the sheer chaos that went down at Orchard Park against Miami, Davis actually tied teammate Stefon Diggs for a team-high nine targets as he grabbed six receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown. We know Josh Allen loves to throw the ball downfield, and the only guys who run those routes with any regularity are Diggs and Davis. Davis also leads the team with a 24 per cent target share over the last month.
One juicy tell the Bengals’ defence has is their propensity to let secondary wideouts torch them – not only do they rank 31st in DVOA (according to Football Outsiders) versus opponents’ second wide receiver, they proved that theory correct last weekend when Bengals cornerback Eli Apple got absolutely roasted by Ravens receiver Demarcus Robinson.
If that’s any indication of what’s in store on Sunday afternoon, then western New York is going to be a very, very happy place indeed.
Micah Parsons, Cowboys linebacker
The Cowboys are the most puzzling of the remaining playoff teams. When they are good, they look unbeatable, and when they struggle, they look absolutely terrible. There seems to be no in-between this season, but on Monday night the former held true, thanks mostly to two players: quarterback Dak Prescott and linebacker Micah Parsons.
We know quarterbacks have outsized influences on games due to the very nature of their position, but the impact a single linebacker may have can sometimes be minimized. That’s less so for Parsons – he is a game-wrecker. He has a relentless, Terminator-style motor that pushes his aggression from the first snap to the final whistle. He can operate on the edge, ripping his way past offensive linemen, or can be slid back into a coverage role, lurking right in the middle of the field.
Parsons doesn’t always get home, it’s true – that’s the case for all pass rushers. However, the unrelenting nature of his constant attack can have an effect on even the most seasoned quarterbacks, as we saw against Tom Brady. If Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can scheme Parsons into ways that have him getting his hands on Brock Purdy early and often, that extremely talented 49ers offence might be a little more off pace than they’re used to.
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