Aside from a couple teams that never drifted far from the top of the divisional or conference standings, the NFC was far wider open this season than many football fans and pundits had predicted.
The defending Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams were riddled with injuries and came nowhere close to sniffing the playoffs and forming a dynasty, while Green Bay and defending back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers missed the post-season for the first time in the Matt LaFleur era, and not a single team in the NFC South finished above .500 much to the chagrin of non-playoff teams Detroit and Washington that had better records than Tampa.
It took Philadelphia three tries to officially clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, but the Eagles locked up top spot and are resting up while the six teams below duke it out.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the three NFC games slated for Super Wild Card Weekend.
SEAHAWKS (7) @ 49ERS (2) | Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
How Seattle got here: Through an overachieving defence and career year from Geno Smith, Seattle went from projected bottom-five team in training camp and ended up in the playoffs. The team regressed in the second half of the schedule, going 3-5 down the stretch after a 6-3 start to the campaign. They’ve been in must-win mode for three weeks now which can help them Saturday.
How San Francisco got here: This year was supposed to be about 2021 third-overall pick Trey Lance emerging as the team’s starter but that ended in Week 2 with Lance’s devastating ankle injury. Then it was back to Jimmy Garoppolo, who was the subject of off-season trade rumours. Jimmy G kept the team on track and the addition of Christian McCaffrey in October gave an already-dynamic offence another elite playmaker. Then when Garoppolo’s season ended it was all about rookie seventh-rounder Brock Purdy, the last player selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. Quietly, as all this was happening, the defence just happened to develop into the league’s best overall unit and the team finished the regular season winning 10 straight.
Storyline to watch: Can Mr. Irrelevant 2022 stay relevant in the 2023 playoffs?
The 49ers haven’t slowed down despite losing their top two QBs on the depth chart. In fact, they’ve gotten better throughout the season and scored more than 30 points in seven of their 10 consecutive wins heading into the playoffs. Purdy has thrown at least two TDs in each game since being called upon in Week 13. He has completed at least 62.8 per cent of his passes in all his starts and more importantly has limited turnovers and costly mistakes.
Matchup to watch: Nick Bosa vs. Seattle’s rookie tackles
If Smith has no time to find his targets and Seattle can’t move the sticks with running back Kenneth Walker III, they’re unlikely to have much success offensively versus San Fran. If left tackle Charles Cross and right tackle Abe Lucas can limit Bosa’s effectiveness it’s the first step towards giving the Seahawks a fighting chance at moving the ball consistently and pulling off the upset.
GIANTS (6) @ VIKINGS (3) | Sunday 4:30 p.m. ET
How New York got here: The team’s 6-1 start to the schedule can be largely credited to first-year coach Brian Daboll’s ability to galvanize a roster underestimated by many in the pre-season. Without it they wouldn’t’ve qualified after a 3-6-1 streak to close out the season. Daniel Jones has made the most of his contract year and Saquon Barkley proved he’s still an elite talent out of the backfield.
How Minnesota got here: The Vikings managed to nab a home playoff game because they had a knack for winning one-score contests and digging themselves out of holes. One narrative around this team is that their record is inflated or misleading since all four of their losses were to fellow NFC teams and three of those defeats weren’t even competitive. Justin Jefferson, arguably the game’s top WR talent, led the league in receiving targets, receptions and yards.
Storyline to watch: Who will finish the game with a positive point differential?
Both teams had negative point differentials in the regular season, yet both are playoff-calibre clubs, which speaks to the various inconsistencies of both rosters. It’s just the fourth playoff game in NFL history that features two teams in the red on point differential. On the flipside, the Vikings had the No. 1-ranked fourth-quarter point differential. Kirk Cousins is 1-2 starting in the playoffs and will have a target on his back. The Vikings allowed the second-most QB pressures and most QB hits this season, plus the offensive line is banged up heading into a matchup against Giants star defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence who’s coming off a great campaign. Cousins has thrived against the blitz this season.
Matchup to watch: Xavier McKinney vs. Justin Jefferson/T.J. Hockenson
The Giants lost a close one to the Vikings just three weeks ago before Giants safety Xavier McKinney had returned from a hand injury. Cousins was cooking in the fourth quarter. He threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns in the game, focussing on Jefferson and Hockenson, both of whom had 16 targets. Jefferson had 12 catches for 133 yards and a TD, while Hockenson posted 13 catches for 109 yards and two scores. It shouldn’t be as easy as it was in Week 16 with McKinney back in the lineup.
COWBOYS (5) @ BUCCANEERS (4) | Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
How Dallas got here: Thanks in part to Cooper Rush, Dallas’s playoff hopes never wavered despite a big injury to their starting QB. The team’s backup admirably went 4-1 filling in for Dak Prescott after Prescott sustained an injury in the season opener against these Bucs. The dual-threat rushing attack of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, plus CeeDee Lamb’s career year was the catalyst for the Cowboys’ high-scoring offence.
How Tampa Bay got here: By the skin of their teeth, really. They were kings of the NFC’s worst division, limping their way to a home playoff game despite never winning more than two in a row and having the league’s 32nd-ranked rushing attack. This team does know how to win low-scoring games and is healthier now than they were earlier in the season.
Storyline to watch: Are stars aligning for Brady and Bucs?
Despite the Cowboys having four more wins than the Bucs they are the ones that had to hit the road thanks to the NFC South being so lousy in the regular season. Not only do they not have home-field advantage, Dallas went 4-4 on the road while the Bucs might’ve finished below .500 but five of the team’s eight wins were at home. Tom Brady, who typically plays his best in the playoffs, is a perfect 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys. Mike Evans is coming off his ninth consecutive 1,000-yard season after posting 203 yards and three TDs in the division-clinching game vs. Carolina.
Matchup to watch: The turnover battle
Both quarterbacks enter this game having thrown several multiple-interception games down the stretch. Brady had plenty of uncharacteristic outings this season but the future Hall of Famer lit up the Panthers Week 17 to remind the NFC exactly what he’s still capable of. Dak Prescott, meanwhile, has thrown a pick in seven straight games and has three interceptions in four career playoff games.
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