With the start of the NBA season fast approaching, it’s every basketball bettor’s favourite time of the year: it’s over/under time. We’re placing win total bets on all 30 teams in the league, and I went 17-13 last season so I’m at least slightly better than flipping a coin.
Let’s start with the Eastern Conference, where three title contenders (Philadelphia, Miami and Brooklyn) got worse, and two others (Boston and Milwaukee) got markedly better. Compared to a Western Conference that could reasonably see any of its top seven (eight?!) teams taking the top seed, the cream of the crop is much more apparent here.
That doesn’t make the picks any simpler, because the bookies are pros at what they do, and a lot of these lines feel pretty on the nose.
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics – OVER 57.5 wins
Philadelphia 76ers – OVER 48.5 wins
New York Knicks – OVER 44.5 wins
Brooklyn Nets – OVER 37.5 wins
Toronto Raptors – UNDER 36.5 wins
The Take: I truly do not know what to make of this Raptors team. I could see them outperforming this 36.5 number easily if Scottie Barnes makes a leap and the addition of Darko Rajakovic provides a new coach bump. I could also see them trading Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby before the All-Star Break. I’m not confident in it, but I like the Toronto Raptors UNDER 36.5 wins. I don’t think they have enough shooting, and I suspect Nick Nurse was ringing every last drop of defensive efficiency out of this squad.
I think Boston is a 60-win team, so I like the Boston Celtics OVER 57.5 wins. They won 57 last year, then they turned Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams into Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. Plus Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are finally entering their prime, with five conference title games and two Finals trips already under their belt. It ain’t rocket science.
The Nets and Knicks are both better than their number gives them credit for. Brooklyn has a very solid eight-man rotation, and New York has improved its roster after winning 47 games. And Philly… well I’m just going to stay away from that team, but it does feel like Joel Embiid is worth 50 wins a season on his own.
Central Division
Milwaukee Bucks – OVER 53.5 wins
Cleveland Cavaliers – UNDER 50.5 wins
Chicago Bulls – OVER 37.5 wins
Detroit Pistons – UNDER 27.5 wins
Indiana Pacers – UNDER 37.5 wins
The Take: In the biggest acquisition since Kevin Durant took the hardest road to Golden State, Milwaukee instantly became the most interesting team in the league. Dame Time. The Greek Freak. FREAKTIME! We don’t actually know what Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo will look like together in a meaningful game, but like everyone else, I suspect it will be a sight to behold.
And I suspect it will take the league some time to collectively figure out how to slow them down when they run high pick and rolls together. It wouldn’t blow my mind to see them start 20-3, so I love the Milwaukee Bucks OVER 53.5 wins.
I’m taking the Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 50.5 wins because it felt like Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks figured something out against the Cavs that the rest of the league can replicate. The Bulls feel, as they have for three straight seasons, like a plumb .500 team, while Detroit hasn’t won more than 23 games since before you knew what an N-95 mask was.
Southeast Division
Miami Heat – UNDER 45.5
Atlanta Hawks – UNDER 42.5
Orlando Magic – OVER 36.5
Charlotte Hornets – OVER 31.5
Washington Wizards – UNDER 23.5
The Take: This division is tough. Miami got worse, losing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent to free agency to free up space for a Damian Lillard trade that never materialized. Atlanta remains uninspiring, Charlotte is Charlotte, and the Wizards might be the worst team in the league this season.
At least the Magic are fun. I think their number is bang on, but I don’t want to spend all season rooting against Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. Give me a cautious Orlando Magic OVER 36.5 wins.
Look, Miami is going to do what it has always done and coast through the regular season before going Super Saiyan in the playoffs. I’ll take the Miami Heat UNDER 45.5 with the trepidation anyone betting against Jimmy Butler should have. The Hornets are a bit of a mess, but here’s a fun fact: Charlotte has won 46 per cent of the games LaMelo Ball has played in, which equates to 38 wins. I like the Hornets OVER 31.5.
If I had to bet on who would finish dead last this season, it would be the Washington Wizards. We don’t do locks around here, but the Washington Wizards UNDER 23.5 wins is my most confident pick in the East. Jordan Poole is going to produce highlights galore, but my fellow Warriors fans and I have seen every play of this dude’s career. And for every game he’ll win you with heroic shot-making, he’ll lose two more with timely turnovers and the most consistently embarrassing defensive effort we’ve seen since James Harden was the king of the YouTube lowlight mixtape.
Wizard’s fans, stock up on Tums. It’s going to be sickening.
Next up, The West. Spoilers: It’s going to be a bloodbath.
As always, play safe, and don’t chase.
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