While many are focused on the top of the standings and the playoff race, half the league is focused on a different race — the race, or more accurately, fall for Connor Bedard.
With the chance to draft the 17-year-old phenom who many are calling a generational talent up for grabs, finishing at the bottom of the standings could very well turn one of these franchises around.
Bedard, the projected top draft pick in the upcoming NHL Draft, finished the Pats playoff series loss against the Saskatoon Blades with 11 goals and 20 points in seven games, after posting an otherworldly 71 goals and 143 points in 57 regular season games.
The youngster can clearly play.
So which team is in the poll position for Bedard’s talents as the season nears its end?
Heading into the final two nights of the regular season, the Columbus Blue Jackets currently hold the No. 1 lottery spot, which would give them a 25.5-per-cent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick.
But the Blue Jackets still have two games remaining and are only one point behind both the Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks, who both also have a shot at the top odds.
With that being said, here is a brief look at every game that could have an impact on the lottery odds.
Thursday’s games that impact shot at top lottery odds
Pittsburgh at Columbus, 7 p.m. / 4 p.m. PT
As previously mentioned, the Blue Jackets currently own the best lottery odds, but still have two games remaining. Their first goes Thursday against the Pittsburgh Penguins, who were eliminated from playoff contention on Wednesday. The Blue Jackets currently have two more regulation wins than the Ducks, so even a single point in one of their final two games could give the Ducks the top spot.
Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:30 p.m. / 5:30 p.m. PT
In a matchup of two teams with hopes for Bedard, this game only really means anything for the Blackhawks. The Flyers are locked into the seventh-best lottery odds that gives them a 6.5-per-cent chance. Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, the Blackhawks are one of three teams that could still get the No. 1 overall pick with a regulation loss to the Flyers, the Blue Jackets picking up two points in their final two games and either an extra-time loss or win by the Ducks.
Los Angeles at Anaheim, 10:00 p.m. / 7 p.m. PT
The Ducks can secure the best lottery odds with any type of loss and a win by the Blue Jackets in either of their final two games. A Ducks loss and an extra-time loss by the Blue Jackets in either game would also give the Ducks the best lottery odds as the Blue Jackets hold the edge in regulation wins.
If the Ducks beat the Kings, they could potentially jump one spot in the standings should the Blackhawks lose Thursday.
If the Ducks, Blackhawks and Blue Jackets all finish the season tied for points, the Ducks will secure the top lottery odds as they have the least amount of regulation wins between the three teams.
Thursday’s other games that impact lottery
Detroit at Tampa Bay, 7 p.m. / 4 p.m. PT
The Red Wings currently own the ninth-best lottery odds, which would give them a five-per-cent chance to get the top spot. Heading into their final game, they are only one point back of both the Vancouver Canucks and St. Louis Blues, so a win over the Lightning could push them past both teams should the Canucks and Blues both lose.
Boston at Montreal, 7 p.m. / 4 p.m. PT
The Montreal Canadiens currently own the best lottery odds of the Canadian teams, as they currently have the fifth-best odds that would land them an 8.5-per-cent chance at landing Bedard. Montreal wraps up its season against the league-leading Bruins on Thursday. The Canadiens can’t improve their odds, but could hurt their chances at Bedard by overtaking the Arizona Coyotes, who are one point ahead of the Habs. Montreal has one more regulation win than Arizona, so if the two teams end up tied in points, the Canadiens will finish ahead of the Coyotes.
New Jersey at Washington, 7 p.m. / 4 p.m. PT
After a disappointing season, the Washington Capitals currently hold a six-per-cent chance at landing Bedard. They can only hurt their odds Thursday when they host the New Jersey Devils, as a win and a Red Wings loss would mean Washington jumps the Red Wings in the standings, giving the ninth-best lottery odds instead of the eighth.
St. Louis at Dallas, 8 p.m. / 5 p.m. PT
The St. Louis Blues currently hold the worst odds out of the teams eligible for the No. 1 overall pick. They currently have a three-per-cent chance at jumping to the number one spot. St. Louis can only improve their odds, as they are currently tied points wise with the Canucks, and are ahead of the Red Wings by just a single point. The Blues hold the tiebreaker over the Canucks, so they will need either team to finish with fewer total points if they want to move below them in the standings.
They have fewer regulation wins than the Red Wings, so if the two teams end up tied in points, the Red Wings will end up on top.
San Jose at Edmonton, 9:00 p.m. / 6 p.m. PT
The Sharks head into their matchup with the red-hot Oilers with the fourth-best lottery odds. They are currently two points ahead of both the Blackhawks, but with fewer regulation wins than Chicago, a loss to the Oilers combined with a Chicago win would mean the Sharks would fall in the standings and improve their chances at Bedard.
The Sharks could also be passed by the Blue Jackers if the Blue Jackets win their remaining two games and the Sharks lose to the Oilers.
Vancouver at Arizona, 10:00 p.m. / 7 p.m. PT
Another matchup between two teams in the lottery race. The Canucks currently hold the 10th-best lottery odds, which would give them a 3.5-per-cent chance at Bedard. With a win and a Blues loss, the Canucks would leap past the Blues and hurt their lottery odds. However, a loss and a Red Wings win would see Vancouver improve their lottery odds by one spot.
The Coyotes need a loss to the Canucks and a Canadiens win over the Bruins to improve their lottery odds. Otherwise, they will head to the lottery draw with the sixth-best chance at having their ball drawn for the number one pick.
Friday’s Matchup:
Buffalo at Columbus, 7:30 pm / 4:30 pm PT
As mentioned earlier, the lottery odds might not be official until Friday as the Blue Jackets still have two games remaining.
The Blue Jackets may need to lose both games in regulation to secure the top lottery odds of 25.5 per cent. Even a single point in either of their remaining two games, combined with a Ducks loss on Thursday would knock Columbus out of last overall.
However, if the Blue Jackets lose in regulation on Thursday, the Ducks win and the Blackhawks get at least one point, Columbus will be guaranteed to finish last overall regardless of their outcome against the Sabres.
Lottery Table
With Bedard the top-ranked prospect for the 2023 NHL Draft, here’s a look at the current lottery odds. There will be two lottery draws where the top two picks are up for grabs.
The percentages below indicate the chances of a team winning the first lottery when the top pick is in play. However, teams can move up a maximum of 10 spots in order, so if a team outside of the bottom 11 wins the first draw, it won’t get the first overall pick. Therefore, while the 32nd-ranked team has an 18.5 per cent to win the first lottery, it still has a 25.5 per cent chance to pick first overall.
The NHL Draft Lottery will be held on May 8 and the results will be revealed live on Sportsnet and SN NOW.
|
TEAM |
RECORD |
PTS |
PTS% |
FIRST LOTTERY ODDS |
|
Columbus |
24-47-9 |
57 |
.356 |
18.5% |
|
Anaheim |
23-46-12 |
58 |
.358 |
13.5% |
|
Chicago |
26-49-6 |
58 |
.358 |
11.5% |
|
San Jose |
22-43-16 |
60 |
.370 |
9.5% |
|
Montreal |
31-44-6 |
68 |
.420 |
8.5% |
|
Arizona |
28-40-13 |
69 |
.426 |
7.5% |
|
Philadelphia |
30-38-13 |
73 |
.451 |
6.5% |
|
Washington |
35-37-9 |
79 |
.488 |
6% |
|
Detroit |
35-36-10 |
80 |
.494 |
5% |
|
Vancouver |
37-37-7 |
81 |
.500 |
3.5% |
|
St. Louis |
37-37-7 |
81 |
.500 |
3% |
|
*Ottawa |
39-35-7 |
85 |
.525 |
2.5% |
|
*Buffalo |
40-33-7 |
87 |
.544 |
2% |
|
*Pittsburgh |
40-31-10 |
90 |
.556 |
1.5% |
|
*Nashville |
41-31-8 |
90 |
.563 |
0.5% |
|
*Calgary |
38-27-17 |
93 |
.567 |
0.5% |
* denotes a team outside of the bottom 11 that can’t get the first overall pick in the lottery
• Standings as of games ending Wednesday
from Sportsnet.ca https://ift.tt/GdNh3yr
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